Odds Wizard from Newhaven Software Ltd.

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Welcome to the Newhaven Software web site

Newhaven Software is an international company specializing on the development of sports betting-oriented high quality software products. Being a member of Software Industry Professionals, our team comprises mathematicians, programmers, and sport analysts from USA, United Kingdom, Austria, Sweden, Finland, and Ukraine. The common feature of our programs - introduction of the latest advances in the probability and statistical analysis.

Odds Wizard v2.05 "Live Magic"

Odds Wizard is a major software product of Newhaven Software. It generates any kind of performance-based odds for the upcoming games in any league sports, such as soccer, hockey, baseball, American football, rugby, basketball. Program maintains Internet-updateable databases with the past games for over 90 soccer leagues of Europe, Asia and America, UEFA Champions League, UEFA Cup, World Cup 2010, European Championship 2008, NHL, NFL, and NBA. Keeps track of all teams ratings in dynamics. Has built-in sophisticated bet optimizer as a powerful tool. This software performs advanced tournament analysis, and features convenient intuitive user interface.

History

The history of Odds Wizard goes back to 1998 when enchanting spectacle of World Cup in France had inspired development of prediction algorithms. First simple algorithm was implemented within the Excel worksheet as Visual Basic application. Since then, a lot of research efforts have been made towards enchancement of prediction strength. Initially, soccer was the only sport supported by Odds Wizard. Nowadays, ice hockey, basketball, american football, and baseball are supported as well.

Since the first release in 2000, Odds Wizard has acquired over 15,000 active users worldwide, and this number is constantly growing.

Uniqueness of Odds Wizard

Algorithms of Odds Wizard are unique, and are based on the most advanced statistical methods, including adaptive regularization of the pseudo-normal solution, integral form of Pascal distribution, etc. There is no other software that can compete successfully with Odds Wizard in prediction strength as so far.

No senseless verdicts

Odds Wizard predicts future events in terms of probabilities of win, draw, loss, etc. It does not make senseless verdicts on who will actually win. Situation resembles quantum mechanics: you can't predict anything surely, but you can compute probability of whatever you want. Then, you compare fair odds (in decimal notation, equal to 1/probability) to the line odds offered by a bookmaker, and decide whether to place stake or not.

Capabilities of Odds Wizard

Odds Wizard's powerful prediction engine is able to compute fixed odds (1 X 2), double-chance odds (1X 12 2X), Asian handicap odds, fixed handicap odds, all totals, and all correct scores with corresponding odds, half/full time odds. It can handle unlimited number of arbitrary leagues with up to 255 teams, and up to 32768 games per league. All supported leagues are easily updated via the Internet connection.

Odds Wizard has been fully integrated with the bet optimizer Stake Wizard 4, decision-making software generating an optimal betting strategy. Using sophisticated probability analysis, it does directly instruct bettor as of what bet structure is preferable, as well as of the specific betting fund distribution. Unlike simple programs based on Kelly criterion, Stake Wizard 4 allows to use a realistic range of bankroll growth, and to specify confidence probability of reaching the target fund.

Odds Wizard has built-in powerful tools, such as Odds converter, Performance analysis, and Tournament analysis.

Live results and odds on your PC

In addition to the listed above features, the latest version of Odds Wizard is able to display live results and all corresponding odds (over 60 per event) in a real time.

What is Odds Wizard designed for?

Odds Wizard is designed to help professional bettors to have greater wins, though the bookmakers may also use it to maximize their profits. As a matter of fact, Odds Wizard has been a virtual independent bookmaker providing any kind of odds on the basis of advanced statistical analysis and forecast. Unlike real bookie, it doesn't make costly mistakes. Furthermore, it reveals such mistakes and enables bettor to rely not only on the good luck, but also on the probabilistic laws. Normally, the latter are on the side of a bookmaker as long as one releases correct line odds (lines). In such a case 10-20% of gross amount of stakes make up bookie's profit in the long run. Should the bookie's line odds exceed fair odds generated by Odds Wizard, bettor acquires reliable preconditions to win and bookie to lose.

New theorem empowers new Stake Wizard

Maximum possible value of an average factor of fund growth Z is achieved by the optimal distribution of a bankroll amongst 2^N-1 possible simultaneous stakes, and is determined by the following expression:
ln Z ave = Sum[pi * ln(pi/qi) + (1-pi) * ln((1-pi)/(1-qi)), i = 1..N]
where ln Z_ave - mathematical expectation of ln Z; p_i - probability of i-th event, equal to 1/F_i, F_i - fair odds; q_i - sportsbook's 'probability' of i-th event, equal to 1/L_i, L_i - payout coefficients (aka line odds); N - number of chosen independent events.

Possible stakes comprise N system bets (combinations) of type (m, N), where m = 1..N. Each system bet contains C^m_N m-fold accumulator bets. In particular, possible stakes include N single ordinary bets, and one N-fold accumulator bet. In general case, optimal system bets are not equipartitioned.

The proof is trivial for a single event with only one possible stake. In the latter simple case, optimal stake is equal to Kelly's optimum (p - q)/(1 - q). The proof for N > 1 is rather complicated even for N = 2. However using Stake Wizard's multivariate optimization engine, one can calculate optimal stakes and verify the theorem numerically for the greater N 's in few seconds.

The above formula means that Z_ave can be incredibly high, provided that one has found sufficient number of appropriate events (F_i < L_i). But the price is tremendous number of stakes to be placed by the bettor. For example, for 26 events having F_i = 1.5 and L_i = 1.7, one should place as many as 2²⁶-1 = 67108863 various stakes to achieve 40.2% of an average fund growth in a single round! Practical constraints however, such as minimum stake limitation or the reasonable number of simultaneous stakes, of course reduce the effective value of Z_ave. These constraints are taken into account by Stake Wizard, and can be set as the program's options.

The new theorem empowers Stake Wizard 4 with an ultimate performance that could be never achieved before.

Odds Wizard may be used in two ways:

1. Set profit margin to 0%, generate fair odds, compare them to the bookie's lines, find occasions when the line odds appear to be greater than fair odds, and place reliable stakes according to the scientific approach provided by the powerful tool Stake Wizard 4.

2. Set profit margin to 10-20%, generate line odds, and open new sportsbook without bookie himself! Serious bookmakers may use Odds Wizard as an advisor, e.g. to correct an average market odds in a direction shown by the program.